4G still ways off

In spite of the massive 4G hoopla the world over, our estimate suggests that LTE-based 4G is still a good bit ways off. We expect 2011 when we see some sporadic strength in 4G business models where real money starts coming in with customer adoption. Although carriers like Verizon, Sprint, MetroPCS in USA and others in Europe and Asia are planning LTE based 4G launches beginning this year, customer adoption may remain low and return on 4G investment will take time. 2012 is a good bet where we see LTE 4G beginning to take hold.

Till then, the “other” 4G technology ie WiMAX does have a time to market advantage. We expect substantial uptake in WiMAX until LTE comes around. However, we think that ClearWire and Sprint (and telecom equipment makers) will ultimately find a way to marry WiMAX and LTE and in 5-10 years we may have either a single dominant standard or at least cooperating WiMAX and LTE environment where devices and networks communicate at the IP layer easily.

As to 3G, China has just now come out with 3G licenses and countries like India are way behind on 3G – the license auction for 3G in India got postponed to later this year due to economic turmoil and upcoming General Elections. So WiMAX and LTE on a mass scale still look like distant dreams. Fact is that 3G and HSPDA is very good for many high speed apps which the customers want today. The business models around 4G are not even visualized so far. Of course all our thoughts exclude countries like Japan and Korea – where wireless is generations ahead….